Bernard Hickey peels through the layers of the Reserve Bank's hopes that this time the 'one-way bet' for housing is about to turn

The four most dangerous words to use in a sentence when discussing economic trends and market asset values are "this time is different," and this time is no exception.

It's possible that longer-term mortgage interest rates have already peaked in this country, and it's far from certain that the multi-decade decline in "neutral" interest rates is poised to reverse itself.

Although migration has been stagnant for the past two years, political pressure to release population growth of at least 2 percent per year through temporary labor migration is still very much in force.

In recent months, as home prices have started to decline and bank lending has dried up, confidence in the construction industry has fallen back to 2008/09 levels

Premature assumptions about supply being more flexible are warranted, especially in light of the continued reliance of industrial structures, workforce, and productivity on such boom-bust cycles.

Unresolved is the issue of infrastructure finance, which would enable councils to pay for the pipes, roads, and other services required by their recently upgraded district plans.

At every point, NIMBY-dominated councils resist and water down the government-ordered intensifications.

It is at best optimistic to assume that the Commerce Commission will take action to increase competition in building materials and lower construction costs.